Saturday, February 10, 2007

You don't say...

A 5 year study by 60 scientists, has come up with a wee kink for the Church of Climatology folks.

Henrik Svensmark, a weather scientist at the Danish National Space Centre who led the team behind the research, believes that the planet is experiencing a natural period of low cloud cover due to fewer cosmic rays entering the atmosphere.

This, he says, is responsible for much of the global warming we are experiencing.

He claims carbon dioxide emissions due to human activity are having a smaller impact on climate change than scientists think. If he is correct, it could mean that mankind has more time to reduce our effect on the climate.

Back to the drawing board we go. Those damn pesky scientists, wrecking all them computer driven models that were so darn good looking. How long do you think it will take for the Climate Change Denier Deniers, to try and trash this one like they do to every other theory that goes against the gospel that is KYOTO?

20 comments:

Candace said...

I read somewhere (God knows, cuz I sure don't) that the scientists can't get their models to work 100%, so always throw in a "flux" factor.

Gee, I wonder why.

Tim said...

Pardon my English but I think "we're Fucked" factor is more appropriate than "flux" factor. But I am no scientist......

doug newton said...

Climate Change Denier Deniers - good one
Mr. Svensmark and his team are not denying climate change. They are saying there is yet another mechanism that is causing our climate to warm up. Their findings if correct will have to be included in future climate modeling and may decrease or increase the projected global temperatures. They are saying that CO2 may have less importance in driving global warming but this only means that we are able to do even less to mitigate the projected temperature increase. That our climate is changing isn't really in dispute. We are well into the current interglacial period. There is some evidence that temperatures and sea levels get higher than they currently are at the end of these periods(i.e before the planet cools and eventually lapses into another ice age)
The current problem is the over-reaction and politicization of the issue by some and the apparent willingness to ruin our economy with irresponsible promises such as our Kyoto commitment.
Everyone needs to take a deep breath or six.

Tim said...

Thanks for popping in Doug,

I realize they are not "denying" climate change, but I will bet that within days or weeks their whole study will be trashed by the likes of Al Gore and his type. It goes against what they are preaching. "We must drastically change our ways now, or we are doomed!".

"The current problem is the over-reaction and politicization of the issue by some and the apparent willingness to ruin our economy with irresponsible promises such as our Kyoto commitment.
Everyone needs to take a deep breath or six."

Could not agree with you more. What ever happened to common sense and rational thought?

Balbulican said...

On one side of the fence you have the political propagandists who use the evidence of anthropogenic climate change for political purposes, Al Gore being most prominent among them. Their version of catastrophism is the destruction of our environment.

On one other side of the fence you have the political propagandists who dismiss the evidence of anthropogenic climate change for political purposes, the various sectoral advocacy groups among them. Their version of catastrophism is the destruction of our economy.

Meanwhile, in the middle, you have a very large number of scientists who are carrying out studies. The vast majority of those studies suggest an anthropogenic contribution to climate change. How much and by what mechanism is not known yet. Neither is the mechanism by which gravity works, nor the nature of a dream. But we accept that those exist, and we keep studying.

No serious climatologist denies that climate change is the result of multiple causes, and their interaction is incalculable in its complexity (we can't even forecast local weather more than five days ahead with any reliability!) New studies all add elements to be weighed and considered. But there's no doubt about where the vast preponderance of evidence is pointing.

doug newton said...

Liberal party desperation and the ridiculous Bloc = nonsense politics. The Liberals need to go down as hard as the PCs did. After a stint in the wilderness they might re emerge with some credibility. We are a liberal country for the most part and the CPoC is starting to fill the role as the champion of liberal values. I hope that the CPoc and the NDP can come up with a rational long term plan that chucks Kyoto, picks any low lying emission reduction fruit, promotes alternate energy development and encourages energy conservation. The last two items are worthy goals without reference to climate change anyway.
We should also think about how we are going to deal with some amount of climate change because it is going to happen unless there is another unknown mechanism in nature that will prevent it.

doug newton said...

Balbulican
I thought gravity resulted from the effect of mass on the space time continuum and dreams are a no input mode of that part of your brain that provides the virtual reality display for your consciousness.

DazzlinDino said...

I heard we we're all living in a state of stasis and that massive machines are using the minute electrical charge our bodies produce to meet their power needs and these machines have actually CREATED what we think is reality in an effort to control us.......or was that a movie....

Balbulican said...

"I thought gravity resulted from the effect of mass on the space time continuum..."

Yes, that's about what's known. Science understands how it behaves, but there's no theory (or rather, there are too many theories) about HOW mass, space and time interact to produce the phenomenon we call gravity.

"...and dreams are a no input mode of that part of your brain that provides the virtual reality display for your consciousness."

Well, there are also those that hold that dreams are communication from spirits, other minds, past and future selves; or expressions of a collective unconsciousness; or the internal working out of problems in symbolic form: or an entirely random assortment of neurally firings given narrative sequencing only upon awakening; or excitations of long term memory...

All of which is to day, I don't think there's consensus about why: but we all know they exist.

doug newton said...

Balbulican
I love your blog name.
I was thinking of hard science. I agree that your gravity analogy is appropriate.
Can the NDP and CPoC get us out of the rut we are in?

ABFreedom said...

All that aside, if they ban the CO2 coming out of my beer, I'm gonna be pissed.... I need that lack of oxygen to enhance the experience.

The so called climate model super computers, IMHO, are still in there infancy, and cannot even come close to taking into account all the variables currently required to make any kind of accurate prediction. They can't replicate the past with any degree of accuracy, coming into, or out of an ice age is a good example of this. So it's only logical that they can't look forward, at this time, with any degree of certainty. The equipment is just not powerful enough to account for all the micro climates, solar influences, and the many other variables required.

Tim said...

Balb said:
"But there's no doubt about where the vast preponderance of evidence is pointing."

Again I agree. Our climate is in a constant state of change. It is a living thing, so to speak. The vast majority of the science is looking at how "man" is adding to the problem, so of course their evidence will point in that direction. My point is and has always been that when science looks at how "nature" is effecting climate change, it is brushed aside and made a mockery of, and therefore given little or no credit in the calculations.

Doug said...
"I hope that the CPoc and the NDP can come up with a rational long term plan that chucks Kyoto, picks any low lying emission reduction fruit, promotes alternate energy development and encourages energy conservation. The last two items are worthy goals without reference to climate change anyway.
We should also think about how we are going to deal with some amount of climate change because it is going to happen unless there is another unknown mechanism in nature that will prevent it."

I seem to be agreeing a lot here today... Personally I don't care which political parties work together to get things done as long as they actually get things done. As you stated, we need to clean up our environment regardless of what our mess is causing. Clean air, clean water and less garbage everywhere can not be anything but a good thing for everyone.

Dazz....
That was just another one of the far too many movies you watch and memorize.... ;)

Balb and Doug...
Gravity sucks and dreams are way to keep your mind working so that it does not die while the rest of your body recoups. It is that simple... lol

Doug...
"Can the NDP and CPoC get us out of the rut we are in?"

Yes they can. The question is, will they, or will they all continue to play crazy political games that accomplish nothing?

Tim said...

AB said.....
"All that aside, if they ban the CO2 coming out of my beer, I'm gonna be pissed.... I need that lack of oxygen to enhance the experience."

I would suggest more beer now and just remain "pissed" till all this blows over.

"The equipment is just not powerful enough to account for all the micro climates, solar influences, and the many other variables required."

As I have said before... the old adage applies... Garbage in garbage out. Not to mention that when variables such as this study are not taken into account how can you possibly come up with the correct answer to the equation?

Justthinkin said...

Cripes. It's a proven fact that even forest fires can create their own micro-climates, complete with lightning,thunder and rain. And we think we are having a huge effect on worldwide climate? (Well, not us who have brains and use them)

Gayle said...

I can just imagine that when fire was invented the first liberal had a problem with the smoke. They've been bitching ever since!

Tim said...

Just...
Large cities also create "micro climates" and is where some of the figures for temperature increases come from. It makes little sense...

Gayle...
I'm sure the smoke bothered them but not nearly as much as watching the evil conservatives roasting their dead animals over said fire and then proceed to eat it.... the horror!

ABFreedom said...

"Large cities also create "micro climates" and is where some of the figures for temperature increases come from. It makes little sense.."

Sure it does. That's how there propagating a lot of this warming scam for political purposes. Their averaging the temp readings from the big cities, which generate a heat island, instead of using the satellite data.

Tim said...

AB, I don't know who is worse, you or Dazz for bringing common sense into a debate. I demand you both bring this to an immediate end. It confuses those on the left... please play fare...

Candace said...

Actually, Tim, I think they are trying to play FAIR in order to avoid paying Kyoto FARES, but I could be wrong. It happens, occasionally.

Tim said...

Point well made Candace... In my defense, I was just at the Wingnutterer... Zorphs spelling/grammar must have rubbed off on me... ;) I for one can not believe for a second that you of all people, have ever been wrong.... I am aghast!